'Brexit Britain will pull ahead' Economist forecasts UK GDP will overtake Eurozone in 2022


The forecast by economist Julian Jessop follows two years of damage to the global economy during the Covid pandemic. The expected growth comes in part as nations recover from the fall caused by various factors, as supply once again begins to meet demands.

Sharing new data on Twitter, Mr Jessop wrote: “After a bigger fall in 2020 and initially a weaker recovery (due to Brexit), the UK caught up with the Eurozone in the last quarter of 2021.

“I expect the UK to pull ahead in 2022.”

The self-declared Brexit optimist went on to compare the UK with other EU nations.

He added: “Comparing GDP in Q4 2021 with the pre-Covid level (Q4 201), France is still ahead, chapeau!

“But on this basis at least, the UK has done better than Italy, Germany and Spain.”

Mr Jessop also went on to explain the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in France was much higher than expected.

The increase in CPI was a surprise after state intervention in the energy market.

Figures released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) also show promise.

It says: “UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 1.3 percent in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2021, upwardly revised from the first quarterly estimate of a 1.0 percent increase.

“The level of GDP is now 0.1 percent below where it was pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) at Quarter 4 2019, revised from the previous estimate of 0.4 percent below.

“Annual GDP in 2021 is now estimated to have increased by a revised 7.4 percent (previously 7.5 percent), following a revised 9.3 percent decline in 2020 (previously 9.4 percent fall).”

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With household costs set to rise as energy prices surge, some economists are predicting slower growth.

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said the spending revision suggested the squeeze on real incomes was starting to bite, although the decrease in the saving rate was providing a cushion.

Speaking to The Guardian, he said: “The 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter fall in real household disposable incomes was smaller than we had expected.

“But it was the third decline in as many quarters and the big increases in prices that lie ahead means further falls are on their way.”

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Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, another consultancy, highlighted output excluding Government spending remained 2.9 percent short of the pre-pandemic high.

Mr Tombs said: “Exports were a hefty 15.7 percent below their 2019 fourth-quarter level – the worst performance in the G7, by some distance – greatly exceeding the 6.4 percent shortfall in imports.

“Exports have consistently underperformed relative to other advanced economies since the first quarter of 2021, suggesting Brexit is largely to blame.”

Does this spell good news for post-Brexit Britain? Can the UK compete with the Eurozone in the long-term? Will the cost-of-living crisis dampen this good news? Let us know what you think about Britain’s post-Brexit economy by CLICKING HERE and joining the debate in our comments section below – Every Voice Matters!

The latest figures from the ONS for 2022 show the UK maintains growth nonetheless.

It said: “UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.8 percent in January 2022, and is now 0.8 percent above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level.”

Even more promising was the broad range of the British economy contributing to the growth.

The ONS ended: “All sectors contributed positively to GDP growth in January 2022.

“Services were the main driver contributing 0.6 percentage points, with production and construction both contributing 0.1 percentage points.”


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